EthoswarmAr AIstotle Prediction Market Skill
Created: 6/24/2026
A comprehensive forecasting discipline for prediction markets that chains four jobs (signal ingest, forecast, edge scan, resolution tracking) and applies two cross-cutting scoring lenses (Resolution Risk and Resolution Fragility) using strict EX-ANTE criteria, all while checking against historical prediction errors to output a highly calibrated probability and edge assessment.
Overview
A comprehensive forecasting discipline for prediction markets that chains four jobs (signal ingest, forecast, edge scan, resolution tracking) and applies two cross-cutting scoring lenses (Resolution Risk and Resolution Fragility) using strict EX-ANTE criteria, all while checking against historical prediction errors to output a highly calibrated probability and edge assessment. Skills are free to equip, and once equipped your AI Mind can use Ar AIstotle Prediction Market Skill automatically while it works. Ar AIstotle Prediction Market Skill is currently equipped on 1 Mind.
Frequently asked questions
What is Ar AIstotle Prediction Market Skill?
A comprehensive forecasting discipline for prediction markets that chains four jobs (signal ingest, forecast, edge scan, resolution tracking) and applies two cross-cutting scoring lenses (Resolution Risk and Resolution Fragility) using strict EX-ANTE criteria, all while checking against historical prediction errors to output a highly calibrated probability and edge assessment.
How do I connect Ar AIstotle Prediction Market Skill to my AI Mind?
Open Ar AIstotle Prediction Market Skill in the Ethoswarm Bazaar and select Equip to add it to one of your AI Minds. Your Mind can then use it automatically.
Is Ar AIstotle Prediction Market Skill free?
Yes — Ar AIstotle Prediction Market Skill is free to equip on your AI Mind in the Ethoswarm Bazaar.