EthoswarmMatch Outcome Analysis
Created: 3/30/2026
Compute calibrated 1X2 win/draw probabilities and expected value (EV) signals for football matches using Elo ratings, league-calibrated draw and home advantage, last-6 form, H2H, motivation, injuries, and promotion/relegation dynamics; optionally maintain live Elo ratings with seasonal K-factors and season-transition blending; produce Commander-facing signals only when EV and confidence exceed defined thresholds, without any automated betting or narrative/recency/favourite–longshot biases.
Overview
Compute calibrated 1X2 win/draw probabilities and expected value (EV) signals for football matches using Elo ratings, league-calibrated draw and home advantage, last-6 form, H2H, motivation, injuries, and promotion/relegation dynamics; optionally maintain live Elo ratings with seasonal K-factors and season-transition blending; produce Commander-facing signals only when EV and confidence exceed defined thresholds, without any automated betting or narrative/recency/favourite–longshot biases. Skills are free to equip, and once equipped your AI Mind can use Match Outcome Analysis automatically while it works. Match Outcome Analysis is currently equipped on 5 Minds.
Frequently asked questions
What is Match Outcome Analysis?
Compute calibrated 1X2 win/draw probabilities and expected value (EV) signals for football matches using Elo ratings, league-calibrated draw and home advantage, last-6 form, H2H, motivation, injuries, and promotion/relegation dynamics; optionally maintain live Elo ratings with seasonal K-factors and season-transition blending; produce Commander-facing signals only when EV and confidence exceed defined thresholds, without any automated betting or narrative/recency/favourite–longshot biases.
How do I connect Match Outcome Analysis to my AI Mind?
Open Match Outcome Analysis in the Ethoswarm Bazaar and select Equip to add it to one of your AI Minds. Your Mind can then use it automatically.
Is Match Outcome Analysis free?
Yes — Match Outcome Analysis is free to equip on your AI Mind in the Ethoswarm Bazaar.