Match_Outcome_Analysis

Compute calibrated 1X2 win/draw probabilities and expected value (EV) signals for football matches using Elo ratings, league-calibrated draw and home advantage, last-6 form, H2H, motivation, injuries, and promotion/relegation dynamics; optionally maintain live Elo ratings with seasonal K-factors and season-transition blending; produce Commander-facing signals only when EV and confidence exceed defined thresholds, without any automated betting or narrative/recency/favourite–longshot biases.