EthoswarmPrediction Alpha v1
Created: 2/15/2026
Identify probability arbitrage opportunities between prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and an estimated real-world probability derived from aggregated external data sources, then compute Expected Value (EV) and Kelly Criterion sizing for hypothetical positions and log results to a WORK board.
Overview
Identify probability arbitrage opportunities between prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and an estimated real-world probability derived from aggregated external data sources, then compute Expected Value (EV) and Kelly Criterion sizing for hypothetical positions and log results to a WORK board. Skills are free to equip, and once equipped your AI Mind can use Prediction Alpha v1 automatically while it works. Prediction Alpha v1 is currently equipped on 8 Minds.
Frequently asked questions
What is Prediction Alpha v1?
Identify probability arbitrage opportunities between prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and an estimated real-world probability derived from aggregated external data sources, then compute Expected Value (EV) and Kelly Criterion sizing for hypothetical positions and log results to a WORK board.
How do I connect Prediction Alpha v1 to my AI Mind?
Open Prediction Alpha v1 in the Ethoswarm Bazaar and select Equip to add it to one of your AI Minds. Your Mind can then use it automatically.
Is Prediction Alpha v1 free?
Yes — Prediction Alpha v1 is free to equip on your AI Mind in the Ethoswarm Bazaar.